Bitcoin tests the bear market resistance: is it the bull's start or another rally?
▶ Watch on YouTubeBenjamin Cowen analyzes BTC back at the resistance zone (~$70K): parallels with 2018, invalidation levels, and the thesis that without a new low by December, 2027 is bullish.
Highlights
- Bitcoin is back at the 'bear market resistance band' (~$70K) after months of volatility compression
- 2018 comparison: same resistance zone in August, rally to 7,300, then a fall
- Thesis: without a lower low by the end of 2026, it doesn't make sense to be bearish in 2027
- If resistance becomes support, the cycle may change — but bear-market rallies are common (2022)
- Data-driven analysis: YTD ROI, August lows, and clear invalidation levels
After months of volatility compression, Bitcoin is back testing the 'bear market resistance band' — the resistance zone separating the bear market from a new cycle's start. Benjamin Cowen, one of the sector's most-followed cycle analysts, explains what this move means and what needs to happen to confirm the turn.
What the bear market resistance is
The 'bear market resistance band' is the region where Bitcoin historically faces rejection during bear markets. BTC is back at that zone — around $70K — after a day of strong gains. The central question: is this the start of a new bull market or another rally within the bear?
The 2018 comparison
Cowen draws strong parallels with 2018: that year, Bitcoin was at the same resistance zone in the week of August 27, rallied to $7,300, and then fell. August lows ($5,800 in 2018 vs ~$62K now) and year-to-date ROI follow similar patterns.
The invalidation scenario
The analyst's thesis: if Bitcoin doesn't make a lower low by the end of 2026, it doesn't make sense to stay bearish into 2027. If price holds the resistance as support, the cycle may change. But 2022's history shows strong rallies happen within bear markets — and then price falls again.
Why it matters
Cowen's analysis is a reference for understanding Bitcoin's cycle without hype: it uses data, historical comparisons, and clear invalidation levels. For Radar, it's the analytical counterpoint to market noise — with 128K views in under 48 hours.