Prediction markets become iGaming's new regulatory battleground
▶ Watch on YouTubeArgentina blocked Polymarket, the US treats them as derivatives, and Brazil emerges without a clear framework. SBC analyzes whether prediction markets are a new vertical or a threat to online betting.
Highlights
- Argentina blocked Polymarket nationwide — Buenos Aires lottery acts as regulator
- The US treats prediction markets as derivatives, with the CFTC in charge and Kalshi leading
- Brazil emerges as a new frontier: talks about a regulatory framework, but no definition
- Turf war: financial regulators (CFTC/SEC) vs gambling regulators
- Globally fragmented: countries license, block, or ignore — and major operators move in
Prediction markets have left the niche and become the center of global regulatory debate: Argentina blocked Polymarket, the US treated the segment as derivatives, and Brazil emerges as a new frontier with little regulatory clarity. SBC's iGaming Daily analyzes whether this is a new vertical or a direct challenge to online betting's foundations.
The fragmented global landscape
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires lottery — also the gambling regulator — blocked Polymarket nationwide. In the US, the CFTC runs the show treating contracts as derivatives, with Kalshi leading. In Brazil, talks about a framework for prediction markets advance alongside betting and fintech regulation — but still undefined.
The regulator turf war
The podcast highlights the competence fight: financial regulators (CFTC, SEC) vs gambling regulators. While the CFTC still operates prediction markets, the consensus is that oversight may shift — and major operators, plus media giants, are starting to circle the space.
Kalshi, Polymarket, and the future
The analysis compares Kalshi and Polymarket: who has the regulatory edge, who operates licensed or not. The outlook is global fragmentation — some countries license, others block, others ignore. For companies and investors, the expectation is living with that fragmentation.
Why it matters
The episode is an X-ray of the moment prediction markets stop being an experiment and become a regulatory power struggle — with Brazil at the center of the map. For Radar, it's the institutional analysis of a topic redefining the lines between finance and iGaming.