Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of more than US$ 140 million, the largest registered in August, according to an AMBCrypto analysis based on CryptoQuant data. The move indicates a loss of strength in institutional demand at a time when Bitcoin is showing weakness in momentum.
Risk of repeating the second-quarter pattern
Bitcoin is up 10% in the quarter, with a high of US$ 66,000, which opens room for a possible range of US$ 70,000 to US$ 75,000 by the end of the period. However, nearly 90% of those gains occurred in July, signaling that the upward pace has lost strength in August.
The technical pattern of recent months is concerning. BTC closed March and April with gains of 1.84% and 11.8%, but May and June closed with declines of 3% and 20%. If this behavior repeats, Bitcoin could suffer another loss of momentum in the rest of the third quarter and in the fourth.
On-chain data already indicate a similar scenario. One analyst noted that Open Interest (open contracts) keeps rising, but spot demand remains weak, suggesting the current move is driven by leverage. If spot demand does not follow, a liquidation could put BTC at risk of a correction in the style of the end of the second quarter.
Moreover, the appetite of American investors is diminishing. According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium Index fell more than 160% this week, the largest drop of August, reflecting the lack of aggressive buying in the U.S. This could make it harder to sustain the upward momentum.
ETF flows reinforce this reading. After the strong initial momentum, the scenario turned bearish, with the outflow of more than US$ 140 million. With the current technical positioning, this movement could be a warning sign for a correction similar to that of May and June.
